好文赏析 | 准备悖论 The preparedness paradox

The preparedness paradox is the proposition that if a society or individual acts effectively to mitigate a potential disaster such as a pandemic, natural disaster or other catastrophe so that it causes less harm, the avoided danger will be perceived as having been much less serious because of the limited damage actually caused. The paradox is the incorrect perception that there had been no need for careful preparation as there was little harm, although in reality the limitation of the harm was due to preparation. Several cognitive biases can consequently hamper proper preparation for future risks.

准备悖论”指的是,如果提前采取有效措施,就可以减轻某种未来的灾难,那么人们就会倾向于认为,这种灾难没有那么严重,不会造成太大损害,从而阻碍对这种灾难进行提前准备。


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